"One Belt And One Road" energy investment guide
The One Belt And One Road strategy is changing the world. Among them, energy is the most opportunity to replace silk, becoming the new medium and carrier, helping to achieve policy communication, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financing and people-to-people exchanges. As the main body of implementation, energy enterprises are facing the opportunities and challenges of The Times.
"One Belt And One Road" covers more than 60 countries and over 4 billion people, covering the six major economic zones of Asia and Europe, stretching from southeast Asia and South Asia to Africa and Europe. Oil and gas remaining proved reserves in countries and regions along the routes are 57 percent and 78 percent of the world's total oil reserves. There is a direct or indirect relationship between international production capacity and equipment manufacturing, with the development of connectivity in this area, increasing the level of trade and investment cooperation, and promoting cooperation in international production capacity and equipment manufacturing. China's energy companies are in the "going out" phase to find markets, allocate resources, reduce costs and improve efficiency. Having an investment book is necessary.
Power and oil and gas are pioneers
After the broadcast of this year's "singer" on hunan TV, it was believed that many people had been dumaxi, the kazakh national treasure singer, who had been on the show. With the dolphin sounds and high level in appearance, dima shine, becoming popular, gongs runner-up, even pay attention to show the audience the two countries also for each other's country to produce more knowledge and keen interest.
In fact, the exchanges between China and kazakhstan are far more than that, but they have already been through many forms. The china-kazakhstan crude oil pipeline is the most important one. It is China's first strategic transnational crude oil import pipeline. Just recently, petrochina announced that the crude oil pipeline in China had accumulated 100 million tons of oil from China at 11:58 am on March 29.
"One Belt And One Road" scope inland on crude oil and natural gas enrichment mainly in the Middle East, central Asia and Russia and other countries and regions, these resources sustainable, to the domestic economy, energy channel construction is an important opportunity in the field of infrastructure construction. At present, the china-kazakhstan crude oil pipeline in northwest, China - central Asian gas pipeline of oil and gas channel, Burma in the composition of oil and gas pipelines in southwest oil and gas channel, channel of oil and gas and oil and gas pipeline between China and Russia in northeast of China, is the important strategy of China's onshore energy import channel.
For enterprises, along the oil and gas transportation industry chain, upstream and downstream, there are many business opportunities. In renmin university of China, the international energy strategy research center director professor Xu Qinhua, energy investment activities exist various cooperation modes of cooperation, including oil and gas enterprises "going out", the earliest to focus on giving full play to the advantages of good cultivated various, including talent reserves, the achievements and management experience, and so on.
In the upstream sector, participation and investment in exploration and development projects can be increased. Along the route of national oil and gas, such as kazakhstan, Iraq open degree is high, also have like several other Middle East countries, because of the nationalization degree is higher, and the restriction of the religion, the constitution, it is difficult to access to its exploration and development in the field of. To tap the potential, seize the moment, and cooperate actively should be an entry point for Chinese enterprises. Sinopec in Iran's investment in the construction of the dawa oilfield, is to supply Iran with much-needed capital and technology strength, took the proven reserves of more than 30 billion barrels of oil field development project.
In the downstream areas, more involvement in refining projects. "One Belt And One Road" along most of the oil and gas resources country, although the resources is abundant, the oil and gas production capacity is strong, but oil and gas liquefaction and lack of refining capacity comparison, production of liquefied natural gas export ability is weak, refined petroleum products are heavily dependent on imports. According to bp's 2015 world energy statistics yearbook, the Middle East's refinery capacity accounts for just 8.5% of the world's total, and the region's proven reserves of 61.5% do not match up significantly. And refining is one of the advantages of capacity in China, the enterprise can strengthen cooperation in the field, and the resource countries jointly building refineries, natural gas liquefaction plants, oil and gas pipelines, storage equipment, facilities and chemical plants and other supporting project. This is � "to discuss, and sharing" principle concretely and reflect. JiYi science and technology, for example, with continental oil and gas cooperation, in which upstream exploration into central Asia, from the supporting area of oil and refining into central Asia, tajikistan have been built in Dan gamla refinery, its performance is one of the biggest hotspot in recent years.
Likewise, power infrastructure is another big opportunity. CCTV documentary in the area along the way, took a Pakistani village girl mana, returned home from school, the first thing is to catch to finish my homework before the sun goes down, because the electricity is too expensive, accounting for 1/10 of the whole family spending, but also frequent blackouts.
Such power shortages are not uncommon. Changjiang securities's latest electric equipment industry research report shows that "One Belt And One Road" along the country's per capita consumption is less than 1700 KWH, lower than the global average of 3000 KWH, visible space of ascension. According to calculations, if this figure moves to the current world average, it will generate about 13 trillion yuan of market growth for global power companies.
Chinese power companies that already have an edge in overseas markets are just as good at it. The technological strength of domestic leading enterprises has equalized with the Japanese and south Korean companies, and in special markets such as ultra-supercritical thermal power units and ultra-high voltage transmission, they have also realized the surpassing of the giants in Europe and the United States. And China's power equipment and engineering package prices are usually less than half of those in the us and Europe, and the ultra-high cost performance is clearly competitive in developing countries.
According to the construction of state grid corporation of the winning Brazil uhv project as an example: beautiful mountain national grid phase ii project bid beautiful mountain, is expected to drive the transformer core substation equipment such as a total of 5 billion yuan of domestic electric power equipment export, change especially electrician, China xd, and other enterprises will benefit. At the same time, China's transmission and transmission standards have been exported to overseas markets. Therefore, experts say, the transmission and transformation project is expected to replicate the model of "high-speed railway and nuclear power", and speed up production.
In addition, renewable energy resources in "One Belt And One Road" countries are also very broad market space. With the growing demand for energy and the increasing environmental requirements, several countries have set goals for the development of renewable energy. India, for example, plans to make 20 gigawatts of solar power by 2020, while Thailand's non-water renewable energy consumption accounts for just 2 per cent of energy consumption and plans to rise to 25 per cent by 2021. Similar emerging developing countries are the new blue sea of China's new energy companies.
Policies and exchange rates are risky
To explore the new blue sea, it is inevitable to encounter risks and must be split.
"One Belt And One Road" initiative throughout the Asian and European continent, along more than 60 countries and regions, different degree of economic development and resources endowment, and China are highly complementary, both to the development of Chinese enterprises and bring new opportunities for overseas investment, and because of these differences, and complicated conditions, increasing the potential risk of the investment operation. Energy investment, which is characterized by large investment, long period and high risk, is more urgent for risk prevention than processing.
The top priority is political risk. As the saying goes, safety first. This is especially true for foreign investment, which is the premise of all business activities. The different regions along the One Belt And One Road are also accumulating different risks. In the Middle East, ethnic and religious conflicts are acute and extremist forces prevail. Armed conflicts and terrorism have been the main factors influencing political stability. The Syrian civil war in the region, the civil war in yemen, the israeli-palestinian conflict and other issues have been going on for years, and the islamic state, the extremist terrorist group, continues to produce terrorist attacks. For central Asia and southeast Asia, terrorist attacks are a major security threat. Kazakhstan, kyrgyzstan, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines were all hit by terrorist attacks in 2016. Some of the terrorists would attack in the west in the local aid project, so as to protest to the government and the western countries, Chinese enterprises have in the process of overseas project contracting construction, such attacks, unfortunately happens casualties.
Political instability in some countries or the rotation of political parties also pose a risk to policy continuity. Burma's dense pine hydropower station, used to be a model of Chinese companies abroad, however, in September 2011, the then thein sein in myanmar, on grounds of "not doing environmental assessment" congress announced the project on hold. Among the many reasons, the company failed to deal with the relationship between the ruling party and the opposition party at the same time, leading to the policy adjustment against us, which should be related.
Similarly, sophisticated investment such as the richest wang jianlin, yet with the "golden" production company of the trading volume due to the policy changes, China and the United States failed bid and paid a $50 million penalty due to breach of contract, converted into RMB, but more than 3 "small target". Obviously, the political risks of countries along the "One Belt And One Road" countries are much greater and should be prudent.
In second place, it is exchange risk. Foreign investment, which naturally includes different currencies, is also nurtured by fluctuations in foreign exchange reserves and exchange rates.
According to the analysis of the Chinese academy of social sciences institute of world economics and politics, for "One Belt And One Road" along the country's investment, foreign exchange risk mainly comes from: one is that commodity prices are still low. Oil exporters, the economic structure of a single, highly dependent on oil export country, oil prices downward caused a huge impact on the economy, increasing the fiscal pressures, and even lead to political and social instability; Second, in the context of the fed's expected rate increase, some countries have seen capital outflows and pressure on their currencies to depreciate. The combination of the two has led to a huge impact on foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate stability in some countries. Countries such as Russia and Malaysia pushed their currencies to historic lows in 2015. When kazakhstan renounced its fixed exchange rate regime, its currency was plunged by more than 30%. In August 2016, the Mongolian currency, tugrik, fell for 22 consecutive days, the lowest rate in 23 years. In early November, Egypt implemented a free-floating exchange rate regime, and the Egyptian pound immediately devalued the dollar by 48%. A similar situation of country, is likely to take the exchange restrictions, investment enterprise will face there cannot bring into dollars or RMB currency income, and the risk of repatriation, hand of large amount of local currency, and depreciating, profits to avoid erosion. Therefore, exchange risk is also a big problem for foreign investment enterprises.
, of course, in the process of foreign investment, also may encounter a variety of types of risks, including investment and trade openness, legal limitation policy limit, religious factors, negative public opinion, environmental protection, etc., to name but a few.
In order to guard against risks, professor of international relations at Peking University to check the regent suggested that "going out" enterprises to save for a rainy day: to do due diligence, know the location investment laws and regulations, historical and cultural environment; Understand the operation history of the project or the enterprise; Be aware of the habitual behaviors of governments at all levels of the project to deal with foreign disputes; Clarify whether investment destination countries participate in the international energy governance mechanism; In addition, to grasp the rhythm of a good investment, careful loans in resource pattern, fully evaluate resource countries degree and the ability to repay the debt burden, about Chinese foreign energy investment between the international public opinion to take the initiative to deal with.
Indeed, it is not a good idea to overstate or even flinch at risk. After all, a lot of energy companies have already arrived or "run the world", or are stuck in a stage where there is more risk in the country, so "go out". In this case, it is better to take advantage of the opportunity to expand the development space under the guidance of "One Belt And One Road" strategy, while recognizing, avoiding and stopping the risk of loss. We should be far more confident today than we think of the unknown and the risks faced by the ancient camel and merchant ships.
Large accounts are counted together
Before traveling, it is necessary to prepare for the preparation.
Since we are talking about investment, economic accounts must be counted. At the national level, "One Belt And One Road" is the big account, which is the strategic account and development account. While the enterprise is serving the national strategy, it is more important to calculate the small account, which is to calculate the return on investment, and to calculate carefully. As the cicc investment-banking division general manager liu jingsheng, points out, even if it is to receive government financial support projects, also must through the market to produce sustainable profitability, to operate for a long time. Therefore, enterprises need to proactively explore market demand, combine their advantages, and do their homework on how to profit and how to disperse project risks. On the basis of this, we can also talk about building the signature project, establishing the word of mouth and brand, and forming a virtuous circle.
In the form of "going out", you can try "group out". Some projects alone rely on state-owned enterprises or private enterprises are difficult to complete, the ownership of state-owned enterprises due to the special situation, investment in cross-border mergers and acquisitions may face more questioning and review, and private companies in finance and communicating with the government has a relative disadvantage, then the corporation and state-owned enterprises in tactical coordination, consortium jointly "going out", can not only reduce the investment risk, and help to break the barrier of the investment, and can obtain sufficient funds. China electric power construction group and yijie hongtai complex group co., LTD., which is a joint venture of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, invested 30 percent of the project in esaram coal power plant in Bangladesh. In addition, the enterprise will also integrate various resources, including the guidance of the government, the intellectual support of the think tank and the publicity report of the media, so as to form the net force, and the international resources.
Energy projects are usually huge and require a lot of capital, so they need to be used in a financial way. In addition to the direct financing of bonds, enterprises are more likely to finance indirect financing through credit, which is to deal with Banks. There are four types of Banks for enterprise � "go out" to provide related services: the first is the regional Banks, including the brics bank, sco development bank and the Asian infrastructure investment bank, etc.; The second category is overseas financial institutions, including the world bank and the Asian development bank. The third category is domestic two major policy Banks, the national development bank and the export-import bank of China. The two Banks have closely followed the "One Belt And One Road" strategy and supported the largest efforts. The fourth category is commercial Banks, including state-owned commercial Banks, which are represented by China agricultural and agricultural industries, and joint-stock commercial Banks such as China merchants, citic, people's livelihood and huaxia. Among them, commercial Banks can provide m&a loans, carry out financing guarantee services such as internal insurance and external loans, and internal insurance and direct loans, and also help enterprises to release and control exchange rate risks through the forward sale and exchange of funds. With these mechanisms and financial support, the investment, pricing and resilience of enterprises are expected to be greatly improved.
Through these efforts and practice, if through to today's mark ¨B polo rewrite his travel book, in the recommendation of energy behind this commodity categories, believe that there must be a long list of the names of Chinese energy companies.